BOOK II. OF TRADE AND INDUSTRY. (continued 6)

1mo. The prices (say they) of commodities, are always proportioned to the plenty of money in the country. So that the augmentation of wealth, even fictitious, such as paper, affects the state of prices, in proportion to its quantity.

3992do. The coin and current money in a country, is the representation of all the labour and commodities of it. So that in proportion as there is more or less of this representation, (money) there goes a greater of less quantity of the thing represented (commodities, &c.) to the same quantity of it. From this it follows, that

3tio. Increase commodities, they become cheaper; increase money, they rise in their value.

Nothing can be more beautiful than these ideas. They appear at first sight, sufficiently extensive to comprehend every variation of circumstances which can happen. Who was the first author of this doctrine, I cannot say. I find it in Mr. Locke, and in the Spectator for the 19th of October, 1711; but they have been beautifully illustrated by Monsr. de Montesquieu; and Mr. Hume has extended the theory, and diversified it prettily in his political discourse; which have done much honour to that gentleman, and drawn the approbation of the learned world so much, that there is hardly a nation in Europe which has not the pleasure of reading them in their own language.

Upon examining this theory, when I came to treat of the matters it is calculated to influence, I found I could not make answer to the principles I had pursued, in the most natural order in which I had been able to deduce them: and this consideration obliged me, with regret, to lay it aside, and to follow another, much more complex. I have already expressed the mortification I have always had upon finding myself forced to strike out a general rule, and this, of all others, had at first hit my fancy the most; but I am obliged to confess, that upon a close examination of the three propositions, I am obliged to range this ingenious exposition of a most interesting subject, among those general and superficial maxims which never fail to lead to error.

In order to set the matter in as clear a light as possible, I shall make a short application of my own principles, relating to the decision of the main question, the causes of the rise and fall of prices, 400and conclude my chapter with some remarks upon the three propositions above laid down, submitting the whole to the better judgment of my reader.

I have laid it down as a principle, that it is the complicated operations of demand and competition, which determines the standard price of every thing. If there be many labourers, and little demand, work will be cheap. If the increase of riches, therefore, have the effect of raising demand, work will increase in its value, because there competition is implied; but if it has only the effect of augmenting demand, prices will stand as formerly. What then will become of the additional quantity of coin, or paper money? I answer, that in both cases it will enter into circulation, in proportion to the rise or augmentation of demand; with this difference, that in the first case, it will have the effect of raising prices; because the supply is not supposed to augment in proportion: in the second, prices will stand as they were; because the supply is supposed to augment in proportion. These are the consequences of the augmentation of wealth, when it has the effect of either raising or augmenting demand. But if upon this revolution it be found that the state of demand remains without any variation, then the additional coin will probably be locked up, or converted into plate; because they who have it, not being inspired with a desire of increasing their consumption, and far less with the generous sentiment of giving their money away, their riches will remain without producing more effect than if they had remained in the mine. As for the paper money, so soon as it has served the first purpose of supplying the demand of him who borrowed it, (because he had at that time no coin) it will return upon the debtor in it, and become realized; because of the little use found for it in carrying on circulation.

Let the specie of a country, therefore, be augmented or diminished, in ever so great a proportion, commodities will still rise and fall according to the principles of demand and competition, and these will constantly depend upon the inclinations of those who have 401property or any kind of equivalent whatsoever to give; but never upon the quantity of coin they are possessed of.

Let the quantity of the coin be ever so much increased, it is the desire of spending it alone, which will raise prices. Let it be diminished ever so low, while there is real property of any denomination in the country, and a competition to consume in those who possess it, prices will be high, by the means of barter, symbolical money, mutual prestations, and a thousand other inventions. Let me give an example.

Suppose a country where prices are determined, and where the specie is sufficient for the circulation: is it not plain, that if this country has a communication with other nations, there must be a proportion between the prices of many kinds of merchandize, there and elsewhere, and that the sudden augmentation or diminution of the specie, supposing it could of itself operate the effects of raising or sinking prices, would be restrained in its operation by foreign competition? But let us suppose it cut off from every communication whatsoever, which seems the only case, where this theory can operate with any appearance of justness, will any body pretend, that the frugal or extravagant turn of the inhabitants, will have no influence upon prices, and will it be asserted, that no variation in the spirit of a people, as to frugality and dissipation, can take place, except upon a variation in the quantity of their gold and silver?

It may be answered, that as to articles of superfluity, no doubt the genius of a people may influence prices, in combination with the quantity of the specie; but that in articles of indispensible necessity, they must constantly remain in proportion to the mass of riches. This I cannot by any means admit to be just. Let me take the example of grain, which is the most familiar. Is it not plain, from what we have said above, that the proportion of wealth, found in the hands of the lowest class of the people, constantly regulates the price of it; consequently, let the rich be ever so wealthy, the price of subsistence can never rise above the faculties of the poor. 402And is it not also plain, that those of the lowest class of the people, who purchase subsistence, must buy it with the returns they receive from the rich for their industry? Now if the quantity of the wealth of the latter, does not regulate their demand for the service of the former, must it not follow, that the price of grain, as well as of every other thing offered to sale, must depend upon the degree of competition among the rich for the labour of the poor, that is, upon the demand for industry, and not on the quantity of wealth in the country?

No body ever denied, that the extraordinary demand for a commodity had the effect of raising the price of it: and certainly no body will deny, that the demand for a particular commodity may be greater at one time than at another, though the same quantity of that commodity be found at both times in the country; and the same quantity of specie likewise not only in the country, but also in circulation.

I acknowledge that in a country where there is much coin, and where credit is little known, a high and extraordinary demand for an article of superfluity, may raise the price more than in another where the coin is more scarce; because on certain occasions, the price of a thing has no other bounds than the extent of the faculties of the buyer. In like manner, in other countries where there is almost no coin, nor credit, it may be impossible for the highest demand to raise the price of such things even to the common standard established in those where there is great wealth. But these instances appear to be too particular to serve for the foundation of a general rule, with respect to the state of prices in the present situation of the nations of Europe, which, less or more, are all in communication with one another.

I cannot here omit taking notice of two very remarkable circumstances which we learn from undoubted historical authority, which seem to contradict one another, and to throw a great obscurity upon the principles I have been endeavouring to explain. I shall therefore 403introduce them by way of illustration, and when they are examined, I hope they will confirm my doctrine.

The first is, that in Scotland, formerly, when coin and credit were certainly very rare, the price of eight pounds weight of oat meal, which is now commonly sold at eight pence sterling, was then valued at no more than two thirds of one penny: and that a labouring man used to receive one penny and one third of a penny sterling for his week’s subsistence; that is to say, the value of sixteen pounds of oatmeal, which to this day is the regulated quantity given for that purpose.

There is a very curious confirmation of the authenticity of this computation, in an hospital at old Aberdeen; where in former times, some proprietors of lands had settled a certain quantity of oat meal in favours of the poor of the hospital, with a liberty to the hospital to accept the meal in kind, or the conversion at two thirds of a penny for every eight pounds weight. They imprudently chose the last, and to this very day they are paid according to this standard. Now it is certainly impossible that any degree of plenty whatsoever, or any failing of demand, could at present reduce the price of that commodity so very low; consequently, it may be said that it is the augmentation of wealth, not that of demand which raises prices.

The second fact we learn from antiquity, that at the time when Greece and Rome abounded in wealth, when every rarity, and the work of the choicest artists was carried to an excessive price, an ox was bought for a mere trifle, and grain was cheaper perhaps than ever it was in Scotland.

If the application of our principles to the circumstances of those times, produce a solution of these apparent inconsistencies; and if we thereby can discover that the low prices of grain, both in Scotland, where there was little money, and at Rome where there was a great deal, was entirely owing to the little demand for articles of subsistence; will it not follow, that our principle is just, and that 404the other, notwithstanding of the ingenuity of the thought, must fail in exactness; since it will appear, that low prices may be equally compatible with wealth, and with poverty.

Now as to Scotland in former times, as in all countries where there is little industry; where the inhabitants are mostly fed directly from the earth, without any alienation of her fruits taking place; where agriculture is exercised purely as a method of subsisting; where rents are low, and where, consequently, the free hands, who live upon them for the price of their industry, must be few; the demand for grain in the public markets must be very small; consequently, prices will be very low, whether there be little, or whether there be much money in the country. The reason is plain. The demand is proportioned here, not to the number of those who consume, but of those who buy: now those who consume, are all the inhabitants, but those who buy, are only the few industrious who are free, and who gain an independent livelihood by their own labour and ingenuity: now the price of their week’s subsistence was one penny one third, consequently the subsistence they bought could not rise above this standard.

Next as to the state of Greece and Rome, where slavery was established. Those who were fed by the labour of their own slaves, by those of the state, or by the grain gratuitously distributed to the people, had no occasion to go to market; consequently, they did not enter into competition with the buyers. Farther, the simplicity of manners, and the few manufactures then known, made wants in general less extensive; consequently, the number of the industrious free was small, and they were the only persons who could have occasion to purchase food and necessaries; consequently, the competition of the buyers must have been small in proportion, and prices low.

Add to this, the reflections which naturally present themselves upon examining the nature of providing the markets. These were supplied partly from the surplus produced upon the lands of the 405great men, laboured by slaves; who being fed from the lands, the surplus cost in a manner nothing to the proprietors; and as the number of those who had occasion to buy, were very few, this surplus was sold cheap. Besides, the grain distributed to the people gratis, must necessarily have kept down the market, as a part of it would naturally, sometimes, be found superfluous to those who received it; and consequently, come to be sold in competition with that raised at private expence.

But when a fine mullet was brought to market, or when an artist appeared with a curious piece of work, the case was very different. There was plenty of money in the country, in the hands of the rich, who all appeared in competition for the preference; consequently, prices rose to an extravagant height. The luxury of those times, though excessive, was confined to a few, and as money, in general, circulated but slowly through the hands of the multitude, it was constantly stagnating in those of the rich, who found no measure, but their own caprice, in regulating the prices of what they wished to possess, and had money to purchase.

From what has been said, it appears, that the riches of a country has no determined influence upon prices; although, I allow, they may accidentally affect them: and if we depart from the principles above laid down, to wit, that prices are regulated by the complicated operation of demand and competition, in order, to follow the other, we must add a restriction (which I observe Mr. Hume has attended to on one occasion, although he has lost sight of it on several others) to wit, that the price of every commodity is in proportion to the sum of money circulating in the market for that commodity; which is almost my proposition in other words: for the money to be employed in the purchase of any commodity, is just the measure of the demand. But even here, the money in the market destined only for the purchase of a particular commodity, does not regulate the price of it. Nothing but the finishing of the transaction, that is, the convention between the buyer and seller, can determine the price, and this must depend 406upon inclination, not weight of money, as an example will make plain.

I shall suppose grain to have been at forty shillings per quarter, in a country market, for several months together, where the ordinary demand for the current consumption is twenty quarters every market day. If at any time an extraordinary demand should happen, which may exceed all that is to be found in the market, there will be a competition among the buyers, which will have the effect of raising the market. Now, according to the doctrine of our learned authors, it may be said, that the corn rises in proportion to the quantity of the specie which is in the market, and that it is because of this increase of specie, that the grain rises in its price. I answer, first, allowing this to be true, can it be said, that a particular temporary, or perhaps accidental demand for a few quarters of corn, more than usual, implies any augmentation of the quantity of money in the country, or indeed the smallest variation either upon the total consumption, or quantity of grain contained in it? For if the demand has risen in one market, it must probably have diminished in another, as the same inhabitants cannot consume in two places. This I think every person must be convinced of, without farther illustration. But I say farther, that prices will not rise in proportion to the money in the market; but in proportion to the desire of acquiring grain in those who have that money.

Suppose the whole quantity of grain in the market to be thirty quarters; if there be no demand for more, these will be sold at forty shillings, as the twenty quarters would have been. But suppose the demand to be for sixty quarters, and that there is a hundred and twenty pounds sterling ready to be employed for corn, does it follow, that grain will rise to four pounds a quarter, because the money in the market bears this proportion to the quantity of grain? Certainly not.

We must therefore, I think, adopt the other principle, and follow the proportions of demand and competition; and then we shall 407find, that if the sellers want to raise their price up to the proportion of the specie, all demand will cease, as effectually as if it had never been made; and the sellers will afterwards be obliged to accept of such a moderate augmentation as shall be in proportion to the urgency of the demand, but never in proportion to the money ready to be employed.

The circulation of every country, as we have shewn above, must ever be in proportion to the industry of the inhabitants, producing the commodities which come to market: whatever part of these commodities is consumed by the very people who produce them, enters not into circulation, nor does it in anywise affect prices. If the coin of a country, therefore, falls below the proportion^[M] of the produce of industry offered to sale, industry itself will come to a stop; or inventions, such as symbolical money, will be fallen upon to provide an equivalent for it. But if the specie be found above the proportion of the industry, it will have no effect in raising prices, nor will it enter into circulation: it will be hoarded up in treasures, where it must wait not only the call of a desire in the proprietors to consume, but of the industrious to satisfy this call.

We may therefore conclude, in consequence of the principles we have laid down, that whatever be the quantity of money in any nation, in correspondence with the rest of the world, there never can remain, in circulation, but a quantity nearly proportional to the consumption of the rich, and to the labour and industry of the poor inhabitants. The value of each particular species of which consumption is determined by a complication of circumstances at home and abroad; consequently, the proportion is not determined by the quantity of money actually in the country.

If the contrary is maintained, and if it be affirmed that the proportion between specie and manufactures is reciprocal and determined, then I am authorised to draw this conclusion, to wit: That if the greatest produce of industry must be sold for what specie is 408found in the country, let the sum be ever so small, so in like manner, the smallest produce of industry must be sold for all the specie found in the country, let the sum be ever so great. Consequently, in the first case, we must suppose, that the industrious will never seek for a better price from abroad; and in the second, that the monied people must spend all they have in supplying their most moderate wants, and never seek for cheaper merchandize than what they can find at home. Consequently, there can be no foreign trade, nor can there ever be any hoarding.

I shall now conclude my chapter, with a few observations upon the three propositions as they stand in their order.

Prop. 1. Prices are in proportion to the plenty of money. And thus the augmenting even of fictitious wealth, such as paper, affects the state of prices, according to its quantity.

From this Mr. Hume disapproves of the introduction of paper money, when specie is wanting, and says, that if nothing were allowed to circulate but gold and silver, the quantity being less, prices would be lower.

This is neither more or less, in my humble opinion, than a project to destroy credit, with a view to support trade and industry. Because it would effectually prevent any person from making a consumption, except at the time he happened to be provided with ready money. Does the paper money in England, keep up the prices of grain at present, January 1759? And will not every article of necessaries fall, in a short time, as low in that country as in any other in Europe, if the same measures continue to be followed?

Were all paper money in that kingdom proscribed at once, no doubt the prices of many things would fall very considerably; but such a fall would neither be universal or equable. The reason of this fall would not be, because the specie would become proportionally divided among all the inhabitants, according to the value of their property; nor because of the small quantity of it, since 409prices abroad would still regulate many at home: but because of the sudden revolution, and the violent overturn thereby produced on the balance of work and demand. The scale of the first would preponderate to such a degree, that those classes of the industrious, who work for daily subsistence in furnishing superfluities, would enter into so strong a competition with one another, that their work would fall to nothing, while subsistence would remain at the price of exportation. If it be asked what could occasion this difference. I answer, because the workmen who supply superfluities, adapted to the state of their nation, would find no more demand for them, from the want of credit, or of a circulating fund to buy with, and strangers would not profit of the fall in the price of a superfluity not adapted to their own taste; but they would very willingly become purchasers of every bushel of grain become superfluous, by starving so many of the inhabitants; and this would keep the price of subsistence upon a pretty even level with that of other countries.

But if we suppose all communication cut off with strangers, would this proportion between money and prices then hold true? By no means. Here is the reason: there are many ways of alienating goods or natural produce, without the assistance of specie. Immense quantities of both may be consumed by barter, or in lieu of service, where money is never heard of: now all this portion alienated, enters into the mass of what is called produce and manufactures which come to market; but can have no influence upon the specie, nor can specie have any upon it, since the money remains inactive during those operations.

Another reason is, that there is no such thing as preserving specie in an equal repartition, so as to serve the occasions of every body in proportion to their worth. The reason is manifest: money, like every other thing, will come into the hands of those who give the greatest value for it, and when the quantity of it is small in any country, where nothing can be procured without it, such proprietors 410of lands as have the greatest desire to consume, will purchase the specie at a higher interest, or with more of their lands than others.

This alone is sufficient to prove that the repartition of specie can never be in proportion to property; and this also destroys the supposition of prices rising and falling, according to the proportion of it, even in a country cut off from every foreign communication. Here is the proof: any individual who has, by mortgaging his lands, got together a large proportion of the specie of his country, will raise prices in his neighbourhood, by making an extraordinary demand for work; and the rest of the same country, drained of their circulating value, must diminish their demand; consequently, prices will fall elsewhere. I now come to the second proposition.

The coin and current money of a country, is the representation of all its labour and commodities; so that in proportion as there is more or less of this representation, a greater or less quantity of it will go for the same quantity of the thing represented.

To this representation I cannot agree, and I apprehend it to be the source of error. A proper equivalent for labour and manufactures, may, in one sense, be called a representation; but there is no necessity for this equivalent to consist in coin. Are not meat and clothes an equivalent for personal service? Is not a free house and a bit of land, a very good equivalent for all the manufactures a country weaver can work up for me who am his landlord? If there were not one penny of coin in a country, would it follow, that there could be no alienation, or that every thing might there be got for nothing?

Coin has an intrinsic value; and when it comes into a country, it adds to the value of the country, as if a portion of territory were added to it: but it has no title to represent any thing vendible, by preference, or to be considered as the only equivalent for all things alienable. It is made a common price, on no other account than because of its rarity, its solidity, its being of a nature to circulate, 411and to suffer a correct division without end, and to carry its value along with it, which is a proper equivalent for every thing; and at the same time it is by its nature little liable to vary.

Were, indeed, a statesman to perform the operation of circulation and commerce, by calling in, from time to time, all the proprietors of specie in one body, and all those of alienable commodities, workmen, &c. in another; and were he, after informing himself of the respective quantities of each, to establish a general tariff of prices, according to our author’s rule; this idea of representation might easily be admitted; because the parcels of manufactures would then seem to be adapted to the pieces of the specie, as the rations of forage for the horses of an army are made larger or smaller, according as the magazines are well or ill provided at the time: but has this any resemblance to the operations of commerce?

The idea of coin being the representation of all the industry and manufactures of a country, is pretty; and has been invented for the sake of making a general rule for operating an easy distribution of things extremely complex in their nature. From this comes error. We substitute a complex term, sometimes in one sense, and sometimes in another, and we draw conclusions as if it expressed a fixed and determined idea.

If in algebra, x, y, z, &c. ever stood for more than a single idea, the science would become useless; but as they never represent but the very same notion, they never change their nature through all manner of transpositions.

It is not the same of terms in any other science, as abundantly appears from the question now before us: coin is called a representation, because it is an equivalent; and because it is a representation, it must bear an exact proportion to the thing represented. And since in some particular examples, this representation appears to hold; therefore the rule is made general, although circumstances may be different. If, for example, a merchant, or a private person, has upon hand a thousand pounds worth of grain, no doubt that the 412thousandth part of the merchandize is worth the thousandth part of the sum; because both are determined in their quantity and quality: but the parcels of this corn, though exactly proportioned to the price of the whole, do not draw their value from this proportion, but from the total value of the whole mass; which is determined from the complicated operations of demand and competition, as has been said, and not from the specie of the country, which can bear no proportion either to the quantity or quality of the grain.

There may be vast quantities of coin in a country of little industry; and, vice versa, coin is constantly an equivalent, but never a representation, more than any other equivalent which may be contrived. Were the doctrine of this second proposition true, every commodity in a country should be sold like a parcel of the grain in the foregoing example, by the rule of three; as the property of all the labour and manufactures of the country is to the part I intend to alienate, so is all the gold and silver in the country to the part I am entitled to receive. This way of regulating prices may be very ingenious, but it is not very common. I now proceed to the third and last proposition.

Increase the commodities, they become cheaper: increase the money, they rise in their value.

This proposition is much too general: the first part of it is commonly true, the last part is more commonly false.

What can increase commodities, but a demand for them? If the demand be equal to the augmentation, there will be no alteration in the price.

Let extraordinary plenty increase subsistence, it will naturally fall in the price; but it may be hoarded up, and made to rise in spite of the plenty; it may be demanded from abroad; this also will make it rise.

Let the production of superfluities, not exportable, be produced by workmen whose branch is overstocked, prices will undoubtedly fall.

413The same observations are true of a diminution in the quantity of commodities. If this diminishes by degrees, from a diminution of demand, the price of them will not rise.

If the quantity of subsistence falls below the necessary consumption of the inhabitants, prices will undoubtedly rise.

If the articles of superfluity are diminished, prices will only rise in proportion to the eagerness to buy, that is, to the competition, not to the deficiency. On the other hand, as to coin or money,

Increase the money, nothing can be concluded as to prices, because it is not certain, that people will increase their expences in proportion to their wealth; and although they should, the moment their additional demand has the effect of producing a sufficient supply, prices will return to the old standard.

But diminish the quantity of specie employed in circulation, you both retard this, and hurt the industrious; because we suppose the former quantity exactly sufficient to preserve both in the just proportion to the desires and wants of the inhabitants.

These are but a few of the numberless modifications necessary to be applied to this general rule; and I hope what I have said, will justify the observation I have made on the whole doctrine; to wit, that it is much more specious than solid, in every one of its three branches.

Let me just propose one question more upon this subject, and then I shall conclude.

Suppose the specie of Europe to continue increasing in quantity every year, until it amounts to ten times the present quantity, would prices rise in proportion?

I answer, that such an augmentation might happen, without the smallest alteration upon prices, or that it might occasion a very great one, according to circumstances. If industry increases to ten times what it is at present, that is to say, were the produce of it increased to ten times its present value, according to the actual standard of prices, the value of every manufacture and produce 414might remain without alteration. This supposition is possible; because no man can tell to what extent demand may carry industry. If, on the other hand, the scale of demand could be supposed to preponderate, so as to draw all the wealth into circulation, without having the effect of augmenting the supply (which I take to be impossible) then prices would rise to ten times the present standard, at least in many articles.

This solution is entirely consistent both with Mr. Hume’s principle and mine; because nothing is so easy in an hypothesis, as to establish proportions between things, which in themselves are beyond all the powers of computation.

CHAP. XXIX. Circulation with foreign Nations, the same thing as the Balance of Trade.

We have endeavoured to shew in a former chapter, how the circulation of money, given in exchange for consumable commodities, produces a vibration in the balance of domestic wealth: we are now to apply the same principles to the circulation of foreign trade; in order to find out, if there can really be such a thing as a balance upon it, which may enrich one country, and impoverish another.

It has been said, that when money is given for a consumable commodity, the person who gets it acquires a balance in his favour, so soon as he with whom he has exchanged, has begun to consume.

That if two consumable commodities are exchanged, the balance comes to a level, when both are consumed. That it is only the 415wealth which is found in circulation, which can change its balance, and the remainder must be found locked up, made into plate, or employed in foreign trade. And it has been observed, that the quantity of money found in circulation, is ever in proportion to the sale of the produce of industry and manufactures; and that when the quantity of metals is not sufficient to carry on a circulation, proportioned to the demands of those who have any real equivalent to give, that symbolical money may be made to fill up the void, when the interest of the state comes to require it.

We have also laid it down as a kind of general rule, that while luxury only tends to keep up demand to the reasonable proportion of power and inclination in the industrious part of a people to supply it, that then it is advantageous to a nation; and that so soon as it begins to make the scale of home-demand preponderate, by forming a competition among the natives, to consume what strangers seek for, that then it is hurtful, and has an evident tendency to root out foreign trade. These principles are all analogous to one another, and should be retained while we examine the question before us.

I must still add, that the fluctuation of the balance of wealth is constantly inclining in favour of the industrious, and against the idle consumer. This however admits of a restriction, viz. The industrious must be supposed to be frugal; and the idle, extravagant. For if the industrious man consumes the produce of his industry, he will only have laboured to increase his consumption, not his wealth: and if the idle person, by his frugality, keeps within the bounds of his yearly income, he will thereby repair every disadvantage incurred by his sloth, the balance then will stand even between them; the industry in one scale, and the fund already provided in the other, will keep both parties on a level as before.

In order, therefore, to make the balance of domestic wealth turn in favour of a poor man, he must be both industrious and frugal.

416Now let us apply these principles to a whole nation, considered as an individual in the great society of mankind. A private person who conducts his affairs with prudence, must either be in a way of growing richer by his industry, or of spending his income with oeconomy and discretion: so I must suppose a nation which is well governed, either to be growing rich by foreign trade, or at least in a state of not becoming poorer by it.

It is the duty of every statesman to watch over the conduct of those who hold the foreign correspondence, as it is the duty of the master of a family to watch over those he sends to market.

I find it is the opinion of the learned Mr. Hume, that there is no such thing as a balance of trade, that money over all the world is like a fluid, which must ever be upon a level, and that so soon as in any nation that level is destroyed by any accident, while the nation preserves the number of its inhabitants, and its industry, the wealth must return to a level as before.

To prove this, he supposes four fifths of all the money in Great Britain annihilated in one night, the consequence of which he imagines would be, that all labour and commodities would sink in their price, and that foreign markets would be thereby entirely supplied by that industrious people, who would immediately begin to draw back such a proportion of wealth, as would put them again upon a level with their neighbours.

This reasoning is consistent with the principles we have examined, and humbly rejected in the preceding chapter; both stand upon the same foundation, and lead to a chain of consequences totally different from the whole plan of this inquiry.

My intention is not so much to refute the opinions of others, as briefly to pass them in review. General propositions, such as those we have been treating of, are only true or false, according as they are understood to be accompanied with certain restrictions, applications, and limitations: I shall therefore say nothing as to the proposition itself, but only examine how far the example he has 417taken of the sudden annihilation of a great proportion of a nation’s wealth, can naturally be followed by the consequences he supposes.

For this purpose, let me suggest another consequence (different from that of the author, and flowing from the doctrine we have established) which possibly might happen, upon the annihilation of four fifths of all the money in Great Britain. I shall take no notice of the effects which so sudden a revolution might occasion; these have not been attended to by the author, and therefore I shall consider them as out of the question. I suppose the event to have happened, prices to have been reduced, and every immediate inconvenience to have been prevented. My only inquiry shall be directed towards the unavoidable consequences of such a revolution, as to foreign trade, as to drawing back the money annihilated, and as to the preserving the same number of inhabitants, and the same degree of industry as before. If I can shew, that the event alone of annihilating the specie, and reducing prices in proportion, (which I shall allow to be the consequence of it) will have the effect of annihilating both industry and the industrious, it cannot afterwards be insisted on, that the revolution can have the effect of drawing back a proportional part of the general wealth of Europe: because the preservation of the industrious is considered as the requisite for this purpose.

Here then is the consequence, which, in my humble opinion, would very probably happen upon so extraordinary an emergency; and I flatter myself that my reader has already anticipated my decision.

The inhabitants of Great Britain, who, upon such an occasion, would be found in possession of all the exportable necessaries of life, and of many other kinds of goods demanded in foreign markets, instead of selling them to their poor countrymen, for a price proportioned to our author’s tariff, and to the diminution of the specie, which he takes to be the representation of them, would export 418them to France, to Holland, or to any other country where they could get the best price, and the inhabitants of Britain would starve.

If it be replied, that the exportation would not be allowed. I answer, that such a prohibition would be highly seasonable; but quite contrary to the principle of laying trade open, and impossible to be effectual, as that author justly observes, when he says, “Can one imagine, that all commodities could be sold in France, for a tenth of the price they would yield on the other side of the Pyrenees, without finding their way thither, and drawing from that immense treasure?” Suppose this phrase to run thus. Can any one imagine, that provisions could be sold in Britain, for a fourth part of the price they would yield on the other side of the water, without finding their way thither, and drawing from that immense treasure? This is entirely consistent with our principles, and ruins the whole of Mr. Hume’s former supposition: because the exportation of them would annihilate the inhabitants.

From this I conclude, that a nation, though industrious and populous, may reduce itself to poverty in the midst of wealthy neighbours, as a private person, though rich, may reduce himself to want, in the midst of the amusements and luxury of London or of Paris. And that both the one and the other, by following a different conduct, may amass great sums of wealth, far above the proportion of it among their neighbours.

This is not a matter of long discussion. It is not by the importation of foreign commodities, and by the exportation of gold and silver, that a nation becomes poor; it is by consuming those commodities when imported. The moment the consumption begins, the balance turns; consequently, it is evidently against the principles which we now examine, either to sell at home, or destroy confiscated goods. The only way of repairing the damage done by such frauds, is to export the merchandize, and by selling them cheap in other countries, to hurt the trade of the country which 419first had furnished them. From this also we may conclude, that those nations which trade to India, by sending out gold and silver, for a return in superfluities of the most consumable nature, the consumption of which they prohibit at home, do not in effect spend their own specie, but that of their neighbours who purchase the returns of it for their own consumption. Consequently, a nation may become immensely rich by the constant exportation of her specie, and importation of all sorts of consumable commodities. But she would do well to beware of this trade, when her inhabitants have taken a luxurious turn, lest she should come to resemble the drunkard who commenced wine merchant, in order to make excellent chear in wine with all his friends who came to see him; or the millener, who took it into her head to wear the fine laces she used to make up for her customers.

If a rich nation, where luxury is carried to the highest pitch, where a desire of gain serves as a spur to industry, where all the poor are at work, in order to turn the balance of domestic wealth in their favour, if such a nation, I say, is found to consume not only the whole work of the inhabitants, but even that of other countries, it must have a balance of trade against it, equivalent to the foreign consumption; and this must be paid for in specie, or in an annual interest, to the diminution of the former capital. Let this trade continue long, they will not only come at the end of their metals, but they may even succeed in exporting their lands. This last appears a paradox, and yet it is no uncommon thing. The Corsicans have exported, that is sold, the best part of their island to Genoa; and now, after having spent the price in wearing damask and velvet, they want to bring it back, by confiscating the property of the Genoese, who have both paid for the island, and drawn back the price of it by the balance of their trade against these islanders. It were to be wished that Corsica alone afforded an example of this kind.

420Is it not, therefore, the duty of a statesman to prevent the consumption of foreign produce? If tapestry or other elegant furniture, such as is seen in a certain great capital in Europe, were allowed to be imported into a neighbouring nation, who doubts but this article would carry money out of that nation?

It may be answered, that as much elegance of another kind may be sent in return. True; and it would be very lucky if this could be the case; but then you must suppose an equality of elegance in both countries, and farther, you must suppose a reciprocal taste for the respective species of elegance. Now the taste of one country may, indeed, be common to both; but it may happen that the taste of the one may not be that of the other, though nothing inferior, perhaps, in the opinion of a third party. And the difference may proceed from this; that the young people of one country travel into the other, where the inhabitants stay at home: a circumstance which would prove very prejudicial to the country of the travellers, if a wise statesman did not, by seasonable prohibitions upon certain articles of foreign consumption, prevent the bad consequences of adopting a taste for what his subjects cannot produce.

This furnishes a hint, that it might not be a bad maxim in a great monarchy, to have houses built in the capital for every foreign minister, where the general distribution of the apartments of each might be, as much as possible, analogous to the taste of the country for whose minister it is calculated: but as to the furniture, to have it made of the most elegant domestic manufactures easily exportable, nicely adapted also to the uses and fashions of every foreign country. Such a regulation could never fail of being highly acceptable, as it would prove a great saving to foreign ministers, and would insensibly give them a taste for the manufactures and luxury of the country they reside in. On the other hand, I would be so far from expecting a return of this civility, that I would recommend a set of furniture, as a gratification, to every minister sent 421abroad, who should regularly sell it off upon the expiration of his commission. Such an expence would not cost one penny to the nation, and would be a means of captivating unwary strangers, who might be thereby made to pay dearly for such marks of politeness and civility. I return.

Without being expert in the computation of exports and imports, or very accurate in combining the different courses of exchange between the different cities of Europe, a statesman may lay it down as a maxim, that whatever foreign commodity, of whatsoever kind it be, is found to be consumed within the nation he governs, so far the balance of trade is against her; and that so far as any commodity produced either by the soil, or labour of the inhabitants, is consumed by foreigners, so far the balance is for her.

A nation may in some measure be compared to a country gentleman, who lives upon his land. This I suppose to be his all. From it he draws directly his nourishment, perhaps his clothes are worked up in his family. If he be so very frugal as never to go to market for any thing, any spare produce which he can sell, is clear money in his purse. If he indulges now and then in a bottle of wine, which his farm does not produce, he must go to market with his purse in his hand; and so soon as his bottle is out, I think he is effectually so much poorer than he was before. If he goes on, and increases his consumption of such things as he is obliged to buy, he will run out the money he had in his purse, and be reduced to the simple production of his farm. If then this country gentleman be poorer, certainly some body is richer; and as it is no body in his family, it must be some of his neighbours.

Just so a nation which has no occasion to have recourse to foreign markets, in order to supply her own consumption, must certainly grow rich in proportion to her exportation.

These riches again will not circulate at home, in proportion to the domestic consumption of natural produce and manufactures, but in proportion to the alienation of them for money: the surpluswealth 422will stagnate in one way or other, in the hands of the money gatherers, who are the small consumers.

While there is found a sufficient quantity of money for carrying on reciprocal alienations; those money gatherers will not be able to employ their stagnated wealth within the nation; but so soon as this gathering has the effect of diminishing the specie, below the proportion found necessary to carry on the circulation, it will begin to be lent out, and so return to circulate for a time, until by the operation of the same causes it will fall back into its former repositories.

Should it be here objected, that upon the augmentation of a nation’s riches, no money can stagnate; because prices rising in proportion to the augmentation of them, all the additional wealth must be thrown into circulation: surely both reason and experience must point out the weakness of such an objection.

While a favourable balance, therefore, is preserved upon foreign trade, a nation grows richer daily; and still prices remain regulated as before, by the complicated operations of demand and competition; and when one nation is grown richer, others must be growing poorer: this is an example of a favourable balance of trade.

When this superfluity of riches is only profited of by the luxurious individuals, instead of being turned to profit by the state itself, with a view to secure the advantages thereby acquired, then the balance takes a contrary turn: this is the case whenever foreign importations for consumption, are either permitted as a gratification to the luxurious desires of the wealthy, or because of the rise in the price of goods at home, in consequence of domestic competition. If it be permitted purely in favour of the first, it marks a levity and want of attention unworthy of a statesman: if on account of the second, it shews either an ignorance of the real consequences of so temporary an expedient, or a disregard for the welfare of the lower classes of the people.

423Every augmentation of prices at home, must be a necessary consequence of many domestic circumstances, and must be removed by correcting them, as has been, I think, made clear. But let it be supposed, that from the augmentation of wealth alone, manufactures can no more produce work so cheap as other nations; I think that both in humanity and prudence, a people should submit to the inconvenience of paying dearer. In humanity, because by the introduction of foreign manufactures, you starve those very people, who by their labour have enriched you: in prudence, because by opening your ports to such importation you deliberately throw away that superiority of riches you have been at so much pains to acquire.

I freely grant, that particular people do not regulate either their expence or their schemes of getting money, with a view to promote the public good. One who has a coat to buy, will be very glad to find a piece of foreign manufacture at a cheap rate; another will wish to smuggle a piece of goods on which there is a high duty. But the question is, whether a statesman is to allow this foreign consumption? I think it is much the same question, as if it were asked, whether the master of a family should, in good oeconomy, allow his servants to invite their friends to drink in his cellar, instead of carrying them to a public house.

But suppose it said, that “by laying trade open, you are sure that wealth will naturally come to a balance, in all countries, and that all fears of a wrong balance of trade are only the effect of a gloomy imagination.” See Mr. Hume’s Political Discourses, Sect. v.

Several answers may be made to this objection. The first, that it is in order to prevent this kind of balance, that every nation gives themselves disquiet: for by balance here, is understood an equality of wealth; and it is rich nations only who are anxious, lest they should be brought to such an equality. In the question here before us, it is the loss of the superiority which is understood by a balance 424turning against a nation. If, therefore, it be the interest of a nation, poor in respect of its neighbours, to have trade laid open, that wealth may, like a fluid, come to an equilibrium; I am sure it is the interest of a rich nation, to cut off the communication of hurtful trade, by such impediments as restrictions, duties, and prohibitions, upon importation; that thereby, as by dykes, its wealth may be kept above the level of the surrounding element.

Another answer is, that laying trade open would not have the effect proposed; because it would destroy industry in some countries, at least, if not every where. A manufacture must be very solidly established indeed, not to suffer any prejudice by a permission to import the like commodities from other countries. The very nature of luxury is such, that it prompts people often to consume, from caprice and novelty, what is really inferior to home-production. It may be answered, that this argument cuts two ways: for if a nation from caprice consumes foreign commodities, why may not other nations from caprice likewise, take off those which are left on hand? This reasoning may appear good, in a theory which does not take in every political consideration. But a poor manufacturer who cannot find work, because the branch he works in is supplied from abroad, cannot live till the caprice of foreigners makes them demand his labour. If a certain number of inhabitants be employed in a necessary branch of consumption, there must be a certain demand preserved for it; and whatever can render this precarious, will ruin the undertaking, and those employed in it.

A third answer is, that any nation who would open its ports to all manner of foreign importation, without being assured of a reciprocal permission from all its neighbours, would, I think, very soon be ruined; and if this be true, it is a proof that a balance of trade is a possible supposition, and that proper restrictions upon importation may turn to the advantage of a state.

425In order to promote industry, a statesman must act, as well as permit and protect. Could ever the woollen manufacture have been introduced into France, from the consideration of the great advantage England had drawn from it, if the King had not undertaken the support of it, by granting many privileges to the undertakers, and by laying strict prohibitions on all foreign cloths? Is there any other way of establishing a new manufacture any where?

Laying, therefore, trade quite open would have this effect, it would destroy at first, at least, all the luxurious arts; consequently, it would diminish consumption; consequently, diminish the quantity of circulating cash; consequently, it would promote hoarding; and consequently, would bring on poverty in all the states of Europe. Nothing, I imagine, but an universal monarchy, governed by the same laws, and administred according to one plan well concerted, can be compatible with an universally open trade. While there are different states, there must be different interests; and when no one statesman is found at the head of these interests, there can be no such thing as a common good; and when there is no common good, every interest must be considered separately. But as this scheme of laying trade quite open, is not a thing likely to happen, we may save ourselves the trouble of inquiring more particularly into what might be its consequences; it is enough to observe, that they must, in their nature, be exceedingly complex, and if we have mentioned some of them, it has only been to apply principles, and shew how consequences may follow one another: to foretel what must follow is exceedingly difficult, if not impossible.

In discoursingdiscoursing of the balance of trade, I have hitherto considered it only so far as the specie of a country is augmented by it. In the subsequent book, when we shall have occasion to bring this subject once more upon the carpet, I shall shew how a balance may be extremely favourable without augmenting the mass of the precious metals; to wit, by providing subsistence for an additional number of inhabitants; by increasing the quantity of shipping, which is an 426article of wealth; by constituting all other nations debtors to it; by the importation of many durable commodities, which may be considered also as articles of wealth; as a well furnished house, a well stored cellar, an ample wardrobe, and a fine stable of horses, are articles which enhance the value of the inheritance of a landed man.

Then we shall have occasion to shew how industry heightens the permanent value of a nation, as agriculture increases its annual produce.

CHAP. XXX. Miscellaneous Questions and Observations relative to Trade and Industry.

It is now time to draw to a conclusion of this book. The subject of trade and industry is inexhaustible, if considered in all its branches, and traced through every consequence. My intention has been to inquire into the original principles which influence general operations, and which, less or more, enter into every combination. I have represented trade in its infancy, manhood, and old age; and have endeavoured to prescribe a general regimen of health for every period. It is sufficient to be thoroughly master of the principles, to be able to apply them to particular cases, providing every circumstance be exactly known.

The intention of this chapter, is, to review some parts of our subject, which I think have not received all the light necessary to be thrown upon them, to suggest some remarkable differences between antient and modern oeconomy, with regard to circulation 427and industry; and, in general, to lay certain circumstances together, which may point out the spirit of modern times, from which we are endeavouring to extract a set of consistent principles. Every thing which points out relations is useful; because we know nothing, but through this channel. Now certain relations are too frequently taken for granted, and nothing is more essential in political reasonings, than to point them out clearly, to proceed by the shortest steps, and still to keep experience and matter of fact before our eyes, when we draw a conclusion from a general proposition. Let the conclusion appear ever so just, if, when compared with experience, a disagreement appears, it is ten to one we have overlooked some circumstance, which ought to have entred into the combination.

To illustrate this, let me cite a mistake of my own, which I purposely left uncorrected, in the second chapter of the first book, where I very confidently declare, that a statesman, who, upon certain occasions, which seem favourable for raising great sums upon a people, increases taxes only in proportion to the interest of the money borrowed, must be shortsighted and regardless of futurity. This, I remember, appeared to me at the time I wrote, so clear and evident, that I thought I ran no risk in making it enter into a preliminary chapter. But when I came to look a little more particularly into the matter, I found I had been grosly mistaken; as I hope to shew evidently in its proper place. Had every such mistake been treated with the same indulgence, I should have been more employed in the correction of my own blunders, than in the prosecution of my subject. People who reason with tolerable exactness on such subjects, generally fall into mistakes, from the generality of their propositions. These may commonly be true enough, within the compass of the author’s combinations at the time, and yet may not be true in every other case. From which I infer, that every one of my readers, who can form combinations more extensive than mine, will find sufficient matter for criticism in every page 428of this inquiry. So much the better: it is by such criticisms and discussions, that particular branches of knowledge are brought to the certainty of science.

The more simple any plan of political oeconomy is, the more it is easy to govern by general rules; the more complex it becomes, the more it is necessary for a statesman to enter into combinations. But when general rules have been long established, they gain such an authority over the minds of a people, that any deviation from them appears like heresy in religion: and how seldom does it happen, that a people is blessed with a governor, who has both penetration to discover, art to persuade, and power to execute a plan adapted to every combination of circumstances.

No change can happen in a state, but what is advantageous to some class or other, and when the public good requires that a stop should be put to such advantages, numbers of discontented people will always be found. Circumstances, therefore, ought to be well weighed before new plans of administration are entred upon; and when once adopted, those who pretend to criticise, must suppose themselves provided with superior talents and better informations as to every circumstance, than the author of the innovation. For this reason, there is little danger in censuring a statesman’s opinion, when he delivers it; but a great deal in finding fault with his conduct, when his motives are not known.

In the former chapters, we have been treating of the nature and consequences of circulation, the effects of augmentations and diminutions of specie, and the doctrine of Mr. Hume concerning the balance of trade. The perspicuity with which this author writes, renders his ideas easy to conceive; and when people understand one another, most disputes are soon at an end.

In order, therefore, to throw a little more light upon the nature of the balance of trade between nations, let me examine the following questions while we have the subject of the last chapter fresh in our memory.

429Quest. 1. Can any judgment be formed concerning the state of the balance of trade of a nation, barely from the quantity of specie that is found in it?

I answer in the negative. A great proportion of all the specie of Europe, may be found in a country against which the balance of trade has stood regularly for many years. An inconsiderable proportion of it may be found in another, which has had it as regularly in its favour for the same time.

The balance upon every article of trade, may be favourable to a nation which squanders away more than the returns of it, upon foreign wars.

The balance of every article of trade, may be against a country which receives more than all the loss incurred, either from her mines, from countries tributary to her, or who willingly furnish subsidies upon many political considerations.

Besides these varieties, there are still other combinations, relative to the specie itself. The money found in a country, may either be said to belong absolutely to the country, when neither the state itself, or the particular people of it, are in debt to foreigners; or only so by virtue of a loan. Now, whether it is borrowed or not, the property of it belongs to the country; but the difference consists in this, that when it is borrowed, the acquisition of the metals adds nothing to the national patrimony, that is to say, there is no acquisition of wealth thereby made; but when it is gained by industry, the money adds to the real value of the country, in consequence of the principles laid down in the 26th chapter.

May not a nation then, having very little gold and silver, open a subscription for millions, at so much per cent? Will not strangers lend to her; when her own subjects cannot? May she not yearly, by paying away the interest of the money borrowed, and by a heavy balance of trade against her, be constantly diminishing her specie, and yet by new contracts, keep up, and even increase the mass of the circulating value, to such a degree, as to be possessed of a 430greater proportion of specie than any of her neighbours? Farther,

Is it not certain, that all nations will endeavour to throw their ready money, not necessary for their own circulation, into that country where the interest of money is high with respect to their own, and where consequently the value of property in land is low; since they may either draw a high interest from it, or make the acquisition of solid property? Forbidding therefore the acquisition of solid property to strangers, is, in effect, a prohibition upon the gratuitous importation of specie. I allow there may be examples of people who make such purchases, with a view to draw the rents of the lands bought, out of the country; but whatever be the intention at the time of purchase, such however is the effect of an established fortune in a country, that, sooner or later, it draws the proprietor to it; and when this does not happen, a subsequent alienation commonly takes place.

Were the purchase, therefore, of lands permitted universally, and were it established, that property in land, to a certain value, should give a right to naturalization, no doubt large sums would be brought into those countries, where lands are found cheapest; and as no exportable commodity is given in return, the specie of such countries might mark the quantity of lands sold, as well as that of merchandize exported. For want of a sufficient extension of these and many other combinations, which it would be easy to contrive, Mr. Belloni, in his Dissertation upon Commerce, Chap. I. Sect. 5. falls into several mistakes, when he judges of the exportation of commodities of a particular country, by the quantities of money found in it.

Essendo adunque da ciòciò venuto (says he) che l’abondanza del danaro, ovunque si ritrovi, significa l’abodanza stessa delle cose, delle quali egli é misuramisura: perciò diviziosi meritamente sono stati detti quegli uomini, e ricco altersi quel regno, dove si ritrova gran copia di danaro. Dal altro canto poi, se si considera lo stato di un regno, ed il danaro, che è dentro di esso, tenendo sempre 431salda l’essenza della moneta (che altro non sia, che misura di cose, e prezzo, che viene in compenso di mercanzie) ovunque di essa vedrasi affluenza, ognuno ben vede, doversi subito necessariamente arguire, un gran traffico di quel dominio, con esito di merci, in uso degli esteri, e all’incontro ovunque questa venga a mancare, doversene dedurre grande introito di merci, che sieno subentrate nel luogo della moneta, e che l’abbiano fatta uscire.

These consequences are only just so far as money comes into, or goes out of a country, as the price of merchandize exported or imported. But how much money has not this author himself drawn into Rome from England, for the exportation of nothing but the bills of travellers?

On the other hand, may not a country, which is actually in possession of great quantities of gold and silver, call in these metals, and circulate, in their place, a symbolical money? May not a nation then, as well as a private person, employ this specie in a profitable foreign trade, and gain daily by it? May she not, after some time, withdraw her stock, by calling in her debts? And may she not also call in her paper, and remain with an additional acquisition of specie in her pocket? Consequently, during the circulation of the paper, no judgment can be formed as to the balance of her trade, by examining the state of her specie; because I can suppose that at this time every shilling of it may be in the hands of strangers. Consequently, the richest nation in Europe may be the poorest in circulating specie.

“The writings of Mr. Gee (says Mr. Hume, in his Political Discourse upon the Balance of Trade) struck all the nation with a pannic fear, by shewing from a long enumeration of particulars, that the balance inclined so much against us, and for so considerable sums, that in the space of five or six years, there would not remain one shilling in England. But happily twenty years are elapsed since, we have supported a long and expensive foreign war, and nevertheless, it is commonly believed, that money is 432at present as plentiful in the kingdom as ever.” I quote from the French translation.

Mr. Gee was in the wrong to conclude, that the balance of trade would have the effect of carrying off the coin: and Mr. Hume has been misled by this mistake, to conclude, that Mr. Gee’s calculations were false. I know nothing as to the matter of fact; nor whether Mr. Gee was a good or a bad judge of the question he treated; but from what has been said, I hope it appears, that the state of the coin in England, at the time Mr. Hume wrote, was no proof on either side.

To judge of the balance of trade is one thing; to judge of the wealth of a nation as to specie is another. England may greatly increase her specie by her trade, and greatly diminish it by her wars: perhaps this may be the fact. She may also, at certain times, have a balance of trade against her; and great sums laid out in foreign wars, may be the means of making it return in her favour. Should that nation begin to pay off her debts to strangers, in ready coin, might she not soon diminish, perhaps exhaust, the specie she is now possessed of; yet surely none ever became poorer by paying off their debts. Nothing is so easy as to have specie, when one has solid property to pledge for it; and nothing can be worse judged, than to purchase specie from strangers, at the expence of paying an interest for it, when they can contrive a circulating value in paper money, representing the solid value which must have been pledged to strangers for the loan of their metals.

But still it may be asked, how it happens, that notwithstanding of the most unfavourable balance of trade, no nation is ever found to be entirely drained of her specie; and since we have proved, that the specie of a country may be diminished by a disadvantageous trade, what are the principles which prevent the total dissipation of it?

This is a very curious question, and opens a door to a multitude of new ideas, which will furnish abundant matter of speculation, 433when we come to treat more directly of credit. I shall here examine it in general, only for the sake of applying the principles we have laid down.

I. It may be said, that as common prudence prevents a private person from spending to his last shilling; so the like prudence commonly engages a people to put a stop to trade, before it has had time totally to drain them. Although most people drink wine, there is no reason why every body should be drunk.

II. Nothing is so complicated as the balance of trade, considered among many nations. The general wealth circulates from one to another, as the money which the farmer gives the landlord circulates back to the farmer. In the number of hands through which the money passes, some are of the class of the luxurious, some of the frugal; the first represents those nations who lose by the balance, the latter those who gain. But the most industrious nations of all, and those who, considered abstractedly from extraordinary accidents, appear in the way to swallow up the wealth of the rest, are, by the means of such accidents, made liable to terrible restitutions. How many millions, for example, has England restored to the continent, in consequence of her wars and subsidies? She then lays a foundation for many more years of favourable balance, and accordingly we see it return to her, as the money which the state spends within the nation, returns into the exchequer at the end of the year.

III. It may be asked, how it happens that no nation has ever spent to its last farthing, as many an individual has done? I answer, that I am far from believing that this has never happened; nay, I believe there is nothing more frequent or familiar than this very case, providing the riches of a country be here supposed to mean no more than the specie absolutely belonging to herself, not borrowed from other nations.

I have said above, that the acquisition of money by industry, increased the real value of a country, as much as the addition of a 434portion of territory: now what should hinder a people from spending their ready money, and, at the same time, preserving their land? Because a young gentleman, whose father has left him a fine estate in land, and ten thousand pounds in ready money, has spent the ten thousand pounds, does it follow, that he is without a shilling? Upon this view of the question, it will, I believe, be granted, that Dr. Swift’s idea that all the specie of Ireland would in a short time be exported, in consequence of an unfavourable balance of trade, is very far from being chimerical, and might be exactly true; although at this time there be six times more in circulation than ever; just as a person who is running through his fortune, has commonly more money in his hands than his father used to have, when he was acquiring it. Let Ireland pay her debts to England, and then count her specie. Let England pay her’s to all the world, and then weigh her gold and silver. Suppose that on summing up the accounts, there is not found one shilling in either country, is this any proof of their being undone? By no means: coin is one article of our wealth, but never can be the measure of it.

I know little of the state of Ireland; but if it be true, that paper money is increasing daily in that country, it is, I suppose, because the specie is daily exported to England, as the returns of estates belonging to people who reside there, and that the Irish, instead of buying it back again for their own use in circulation, augment their paper, in proportion to the progress of their industry; and only buy such quantities of specie as are necessary for paying the balance of their trade. Now by buying specie, I do not suppose, that they bring any over to Ireland, in order to send it back to England; but that they send over goods to the value, which the English merchants pay in specie, or in English paper, to those who are creditors upon Ireland, for the value of their rents, &c.

Suppose then, for a farther illustration of some principles, that all the lands of Ireland belonged to Englishmen residing in their own country, and annually drawing from Ireland the income belonging 435to them, what would the consequence be? As long as this portion of the produce of lands, which goes for rent, (and which, as we have said, is the fund provided for the subsistence of the free hands who purchase their own necessaries) could be bought and consumed by the Irish themselves, that is, in other words, while in Ireland there was a demand for this portion of the fruits, it would be paid for, either in coin, to the diminution of their specie, or in something which might be converted into money; that is, by the produce of their industry, and thus, by the means of trade, would come into the hands of the English proprietors, either in specie, or in any other form they judged proper.

That so soon as the demand for this portion of fruits came to fail, for want of money, or industry, in Ireland to purchase it, what remained on hand would be sent over to England in kind; or by the way of trade, be made to circulate with other nations (in beef, butter, tallow, &c.) who would give silver and gold for it, to the proprietors of the Irish lands. By such a diminution of demand in the country, for the fruits of the earth, the depopulation of Ireland would be implied; because they who consumed them formerly, consume them no more; that is to say, they either died, or left the country.

To conclude, a great part of the value of a country is its produce and manufactures; but it does not follow, as Mr. Belloni asserts, that these should as necessarily draw a proportional sum of the gold and silver of Europe into that country, as a shoal of small fishes draws water fowl, or as charity draws the poor, or as beauty draws admiration.

Quest. 2. Can no rule be found to judge of the balance of trade from the state of specie, or at least to perceive the effects of that balance in augmenting or diminishing the mass of riches?

Could it be supposed that specie never circulated between nations, but in the way of trade, and in exchange for exportable commodities, this would be a rule.

436In nations where the earth produces neither gold or silver, and where these metals are imported as the returns of industry only, the balance in their favour, from the introduction of specie, to this day, would be measured by the quantity of it which they possess. Here Mr. Belloni’s opinion is just.

Farther, the consumption made by any nation for the same term of years, is equal to the whole natural produce and labour of the inhabitants for that time, minus the quantity of such produce and labour, as is, or has been equal in value to the actual national specie.

On the other hand, in nations where gold and silver are produced by the earth, the balance of trade against them, from the time these metals became the object of trade, to this day, may be estimated by the quantity of them which has been exported.

And farther, the consumption made by such nations, for the same term of years, is equal to the whole natural produce and labour of the inhabitants for that time, plus the quantity of such produce and labour, as is, or has been equal to the quantity of these metals exported.

These positions are by much too general to be laid down as principles, because trade is not concerned in every acquisition or alienation of specie; but they may serve, in the mean time, to illustrate the doctrine we have been considering, and even in many cases may be found pretty exact. For example,

If it be true, that in any nation of Europe, there be now just as much silver and gold as there was ten years ago, and if that nation during this period, has supported, without borrowing from strangers, an expensive war which may have cost it, I suppose, five millions, it is certain, that during this period, the home consumption must have been the value of five millions less than the natural produce, labour, and industry of the inhabitants; which sum of five millions must have come from abroad, in return for a like value 437of the production, labour, &c. remaining over and above their own consumption.

In this supposition, the national wealth (the metals) remains as before, the balance of it only is changed. How this change is performed, and what are its consequences, may be discovered by an application of the principles already laid down.

Quest. 3. What were the effects of riches before the introduction of trade and industry?

I never can sufficiently recommend to my readers to compare circumstances, in the oeconomy of the antients, with that of modern times; because I see a multitude of new doctrines laid down, which, I think, never would have been broached, had such circumstances been properly attended to. I have endeavoured to shew, that the price of goods, but especially of articles of the first necessity, have little or no connection with the quantities of specie in a country. The slightest inspection into the state of circulation, in different ages, will fortify our reasoning: but the general taste of dissipation which is daily gaining ground, makes people now begin to imagine, that wealth and circulation are synonimous terms; whereas nothing is more contrary both to reason and matter of fact. A slight review of this matter, in different ages, will set it in a clearer light than a more abstract reasoning can.

It is a question with me, whether the mines of Potosi and Brasil, have produced more riches to Spain and Portugal, within these two hundred years, than the treasures heaped up in Asia, Greece, and Egypt, after the death of Alexander, furnished to the Romans, during the two hundred years which followed the defeat of Perseus, and the conquest of Macedonia.

From the treasures mentioned by all the historians who have writ of the conquest of those kingdoms by the Romans, I do not think I am far from truth, when I compare the treasures of the frugal Greeks to the mines of the new world.

438What effect, as to circulation, had the accumulation of these vast treasures? Not any to accelerate it, surely: and no person, the least conversant in antiquity, will pretend that the circulating specie in those times, bore as great a proportion to their treasures, as what is at present circulating among us, bears to the wealth of the most oeconomising Prince in Europe. If any one doubt of this particular, let him listen to Appian, who says, that the successors of Alexander, the possessors of those immense riches, lived with the greatest frugality. Those treasures were then, as I have said, a real addition to the value of their kingdoms; but had not the smallest influence upon prices. In those days of small circulation, the prices of every thing must have been vastly low, not from the great abundance of them, but because of the little demand; and as a proof of this, I cite the example of a country, which, within the space of fifty years, possessed in specie at one time, considerably beyond the worth of the land, houses, slaves, merchandize, natural produce, moveables, and ready money, at another. The example is mentioned by Mr. Hume, and I am surprized the consequence of it did not strike him. For if the money they possessed was greatly above the worth of all their property, moveable and immoveable, surely it never could be considered as a representation of their industry, which made so small a part of the whole. Athens possessed, before the Peloponesian war, a treasure of ten thousand talents; and fifty years afterwards, all Athens, in the several articles above specified, did not amount to the value of six thousand. Hume’s Political Discourses upon the Balance of Trade.

These treasures were spent in the war, and they had been laid up for no other purpose. Therefore I was in the right, when I observed above, Chap. 22. that war in antient times, had the effect that industry has now: it was the only means of making wealth circulate. But peace producing a general stagnation of circulation, people returned to the antient simplicity of their manners, and the prices of subsistence remained on the former footing; because there 439was no increase of appetite, or rising of demand upon any necessary article. So much for the state of wealth during the days of frugality.

The Romans subdued all those kingdoms of the Greeks, and drew their treasures to Rome. The republic went to destruction, and a succession of the most prodigal Princes ever known in history succeeded one another for about two hundred years. Those monstrous treasures were then thrown into circulation, and I must now give an idea of the effects produced by such a revolution.

I have already observed (Chap. 28.) that in consequence of the great prodigality of those times, the prices of superfluities rose to a monstrous height; while those of necessaries kept excessively low. The fact is indisputable, and any one who inclines to satisfy himself farther, may look into that valuable collection of examples of antient luxury, wealth, and at the same time of simplicity, found in Mr. Wallace’s Dissertation upon the Numbers of Mankind in antient and modern Times, p. 132. et seq.

But how is it to be accounted for, that the prices of superfluities should stand so high, while necessaries were so low? The reason is plain, from the principles we have laid down. The circulation of money had no resemblance to that of modern times: fortunes were made by corruption, fraud, concussion, rapine, and penury; not by trade and industry. Seneca amassed in four years 2,400,000 pounds sterling. An augur was worth 3 millions sterling. M. Antony owed on the Ides of March, 322,916 pounds sterling, and paid it before the calends of April. We know of no such circulation. Every revolution was violent: the powerful were rapacious and prodigal, the weak were poor and lived in the greatest simplicity: consequently, the objects of the desires of the rich were immensely dear; and the necessaries for the poor were excessively cheap. This is a confirmation of the principles we have laid down in Chap. 28. that the price of subsistence must ever be in proportion to the faculties of the numerous classes of those who buy: that the price of 440every thing must be in proportion to the demand made for it; and that in every case, where the supply can naturally increase in proportion to the demand, there must be a determined proportion between the price of such articles and that of subsistence. Now in the examples given by Mr. Wallace, of such articles as were found at monstrous prices, we only find such as could not be increased according to demand: here is the enumeration of them. Large asses brought from Spain, peacocks, fine doves, mullets, lampreys, peaches, large asparagus, purple, wool, jewels, carpets, vestes Byssinæ, slaves skilled in the finer arts, pictures, statues, books, and rewards to those who taught the sciences. By casting a glance upon the catalogue, we may easily perceive that the extraordinary price must have proceeded from the impossibility of augmenting the supply in proportion to the demand; not from the abundance of the money, which had no effect in raising the price of necessaries. The cheapness again of these, did not proceed from vast plenty; but because the price must have remained in proportion to the faculties of the numerous poor; and because the augmentation of the wealth of the rich never could increase their consumption of any necessary article. Had the Roman empire been governed with order and tranquility, this taste of luxury, by precipitating money into the hands of the numerous classes, would, in time, have wrought the effects of multiplying the number of the industrious, by purging the lands; consequently, of increasing the demand for vendible subsistence; consequently, of raising the price of it. And on the other hand, the adequate proportion between services and rewards given by the public, would have checked the other branch of circulation which produced those monstrous fortunes, to wit, rapine and corruption: and industry receiving a regular encouragement, every article of extraordinary demand for delicate aliments, birds, fishes, fruits, &c. would have been supplied with sufficient abundance; and consequently, would have fallen in its price. But when either despotism or slavery were the 441patrimonial inheritance of every one on coming into the world, we are not to expect to see the same principles operate, as in ages where the monarch and the peasant are born equally free to enjoy the provision made for them by their forefathers.

I shall now come nearer home, and examine a very remarkable difference between the oeconomy in practice some hundred years ago, and that of the present time, with regard to the method of levying men and money.

This change is a consequence of trade and industry, and as I have been preparing the way for the introduction of other matters which equally owe their existence to them, it may not be improper, in this last chapter, to point out the natural causes of this change in modern politics. When people consider effects only, without examining the causes which produce them, they commonly blame rashly, or fall into an idle admiration of fortune. It is only by tracing natural causes, that we come at the means of forming a solid judgment of the nature of every abuse, and of every advantage.

The general taste for the extension of industry, is what has brought such loads of money into circulation; not the discovery of America. We read of treasures in antient times which appear to rival the wealth of modern Europe. Appian, as cited by Mr. Hume, mentions a treasure of the Kings of Egypt, of near two hundred millions sterling; and says, that all the successors of Alexander were nearly as rich, and fully as frugal. Frugality then is compatible with the greatest wealth. Therefore the wealth of America, has not been the cause of European refinement; but the extension of civil liberty has obliged the possessors of treasures, which in all ages have been coveted by man, to open their repositories, in order to procure the service of those who formerly made a branch of the property of the most wealthy. This is the foundation of trade and industry.

442Why, therefore, has trade and industry laid the foundation of taxes and standing armies, which appear so contrary to the one and the other?

I answer shortly, that very little change has been made as to things themselves by that revolution; but with respect to the order of things, the difference is great. Trade and industry cannot flourish without method and regularity; taxes and standing armies are only a systematical execution of the old plan, for preserving the power, safety, and independence of the nations of Europe.

Taxes are no more than the liquidation of those services which formerly were performed in kind. Standing armies are become necessary, that the call of the rich luxurious, who are insatiable in their demand for the service of the poor, may not be able to engross also the hands necessary for the defence of the state. Personal services were the taxes of former times. Let no man imagine, that ever any state could subsist without the contribution of its subjects. But a more authentic proof of this opinion is, that in the year 1443, while Charles the VIIth was engaged in the long war with the Kings of England, who disputed with him the monarchy of France, the services of the vassals of that kingdom (by the edict of Saumur of the 14th of September) were formally converted into the perpetual Taille; and this may be considered, as the foundation of the regular military force of the French nation. No body, in those days, imagined such an imposition to be oppressive or unjust: and if those who remain subject to it, appear under oppression at present, it is only because they continue in their antient situation. Personal services are the heaviest of all impositions.

Quest. 4. Why, therefore, are taxes so generally cried out against, why do they appear so new an invention, and why do people flatter themselves, that there is a possibility of putting an end to so general an oppression? I answer, because people commonly attend to words, and not to things. In former times, the great bulk of the inhabitants lived upon the lands, and were bound to personal 443service. This kind of imposition was familiar, general, and equal; every class of the people was bound to services analogous to their rank in the state. The industrious who lived without any dependence upon the lands, and who did not enjoy the privileges of cities and corporations, were so few, that they were not an object of public attention. Farther, most privileges then known, were in consequence of land-property; consequently, those independent people were in a manner without protection, they were vassals to no body; consequently, had no body to interest themselves for them; consequently, were a prey to every one who had power, and no body was sorry to see a rich fellow, who had got plenty of ready money, and who seemed to do nothing for it, plundered by a lord who appeared in the service of his country. We see in the time of the croisades how odious all those money gatherers were; these were what we now call traders, it was principally in hatred to them, that the borrowing of money at interest was declared antichristian; because the Jews were principally in those days the merchants or the money lenders.

In the beginning of the sixteenth century, when Princes began to take a taste for magnificence, finding no body, almost, within their own country capable to supply them, they used to send to Flanders and Venice, the great trading states in those days, for many kinds of manufactures. This is the fountain of foreign trade in Europe. These two states perceiving the great benefit resulting to them from this new taste of dissipation, gave great encouragement to the industrious. Had they begun to impose high taxes upon them, they would have ruined all. Industry, then, was encouraged at first, and little loaded with any imposition. This is perfectly consistent with our doctrine. Some Princes, perceiving the daily diminution of their wealth, made efforts to restore this antient simplicity, by forbidding this hurtful trade; others, such as Francis I. of France, and Henry VIII. of England, endeavoured all they could to establish industry in their own states. For this purpose, great privileges 444were granted to the industrious, who thereby increased daily. But this revolution naturally purged the lands, and by that operation diminished the number of personal service-men; or, as in France, where personal service was at an end, the number of those subject to the taille. I shall not trace this progress very minutely, but come directly to the period of extensive taxation. When industry was fairly established, and when nations began to be well clothed with the produce of their own soil, wrought up in a thousand different forms, by their own industrious subjects, Princes soon perceived their treasures to melt away, and saw plainly, that without a method of drawing back the money from this new class of inhabitants, the whole wealth of the state would come to center in their hands; but the means of coming at money was extremely difficult. The proprietors of the riches had no solid property in proportion; and their money was inaccessible. Some betook themselves to violence, and others to fraud: the one and the other produced the worst effects. The violence destroyed industry, and rendred the industrious miserable: for we have observed, that when inhabitants are once purged from off the lands, they have no resource left them but their industry; whereas let a peasant be robbed ever so often of his money, he still has the earth to maintain him. The fraudulent corrupted the great; the ministers of Princes became the terror of every man who had money; they enriched themselves by accepting of compositions, and the state remained constantly in want. At last, the scheme of proportional taxes took place: but for this purpose it was necessary to obtain the consent of the whole state; for no Prince’s power extended so far, and they were not come to the time of being able to enlarge their prerogative. Such impositions, therefore, were first introduced in republics, and mixed governments. In monarchies they were established with more difficulty; because the great were equally affected by them with the small. But when long and expensive wars rendred supplies of money absolutely necessary, then were taxes consented 445to; and the Prince who had not power enough to establish them, easily found means to keep them up, when once introduced.