Note 263-5 — Chapter III

Even J. S. Mill's views on the probability of perpetual peace on earth are altogether too rosy: Principles III, ch. 17, 5. This is still truer of Buckle. History of Civilization, I, ch. 4. In the modern state-system of Europe, there is wont to be in each generation, a peaceful half and a warlike one, which follow each other as ebb and flow. I need only mention the preponderance of peace between 1714 and 1740, between 1763 and 1793, and between 1815 and 1853. It happens frequently that at the close of the period of peace, intelligent and noble but unhistorical and therefore short-sighted minds begin to dream of perpetual peace. Even a man like Dohm (Ueber die bürgerliche Verbesserung der Juden, 227 seq.) expected, in 1785, that considering the size and quality of armies, and the mutual knowledge of all countries of one another, that instead of actually waging war, nations might send to each other well authenticated statements of the strength, for instance, of their navies and of the sums necessary to maintain them for a number of years.