Note 89 — Chapter VIII

Phantasms, vol. i. pp. 303-310. The statement in the text must not be regarded as having more weight than its author himself would have assigned to it. Mr. Gurney certainly regarded his estimate as little more than a guess—a guess indeed made by one who had carefully studied and weighed the facts, so far as they could be known, but because of our inevitable ignorance a guess still, rather than an estimate on the approximate accuracy of which it would be safe to rely. The calculation depends on several assumptions, one or two of which, at least, are highly controvertible; for instance, the accuracy of the 5187 persons who asserted that they had not within a given period of twelve years had an exceptionally vivid and distressing dream relating to the death of a friend; and the accuracy of the twenty-four persons who described themselves as having had within the same period a similar dream actually occurring within twelve hours of the death of the person represented. Probably the estimate given requires modification by large allowances being made in both directions for defects of memory. But even when thus discounted the coincidences will, it is thought, by any one who carefully studies the subject be found to be more numerous than can plausibly be attributed to chance.